Wait — did Elon Musk, President-elect Trump’s new best bro, actually meet with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in mid-November? Tehran issued a weak denial, but The New York Times stuck to its story. Amazingly, this meeting did indeed take place — and it raises hope that Trump and Iran might make some kind of deal.
That word — “deal” — has been the central mantra of Trump’s life. He seems fascinated by the prospect of bringing enemies together — and the worse the enemy, the greater the prize. If Trump wants to pull a diplomatic rabbit out of his presidential hat, Iran could be the place to do it.
Much of Trump’s history argues against this possibility. During his first presidential term, he enforced and even tightened the sanctions that are crippling Iran’s economy and crushing its population. He pulled the United States out of the 2016 nuclear deal with Iran, the most promising accord between our countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Most brazenly, he ordered the assassination of General Qassim Soleimani, one of Iran’s most important commanders. This hardly seems a president eager to reach out to Iran.
Iran, however, is breaking out of isolation in its region. Its foreign minister has traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with its leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman. A reconciliation between the main Sunni and Shia Muslim powers in the Middle East would realign the region. Trump has a soft spot for the Saudis. If the prince advises him, “Do what I did — bury the hatchet with Tehran,” he might listen.
What would a US-Iran deal look like? America’s main interest is ensuring that Iran remains a nonnuclear state. Partly to placate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump would also seek limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for Hezbollah and other militant groups.
Iran insists on maintaining a deterrent force to protect itself from attack. Israel feels threatened by Iran’s missiles and is not comforted by assurances that they are for deterrent purposes only. If offered enough relief from American sanctions, however, Iran might consider making concessions. The alternative is more of the bitter enmity that has shaped US-Iran relations for nearly half a century. That could draw the two countries into another Middle East war — the last thing Trump wants.
The elephant in the diplomatic salon, of course, is Netanyahu. Trump fervently supports Israel and has advised Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in Gaza. That bodes more death and destruction for Palestinians.
It might also give Trump some leverage over Netanyahu. “Bibi, I let you work your will in Gaza,” Trump might tell the Israeli leader. “Now you owe me one. We’ve both warmed up to the Saudis, and the Saudis are ready for a deal with Iran. So am I. You’re going to have to swallow this.”
That would be a hard sell not only in Israel but within Trump’s own inner circle. His choice for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, recently proposed, “Let’s make America great again and let’s make Iran broke again.” His designated national security advisor, Representative Michael Waltz, asserted on X after Trump named him that “the Iran Regime is the root cause of the chaos & terror that has been unleashed across the region. We will not tolerate the status quo of their support for terrorism.”
A normal president would heed such strong advice from his advisers. Trump, however, is anything but normal. He seems to have no fear of backlash. When he wants something, it’s damn the naysayers and full speed ahead.
Politics within Iran makes this a tempting time to try for a deal. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was unexpectedly elected in July after his predecessor died in a helicopter crash, seems eager to negotiate.
Then there is the Supreme Leader factor. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 and reportedly in failing health, has the final say on important matters. He has repeatedly called nuclear weapons un-Islamic and has forbidden his scientists to build them. Some in the Iranian security establishment are unhappy about this. A new regime might reverse Khamenei’s antinuclear stance and rush to construct a bomb. Now might be a last chance to make a deal that would keep Iran from doing that.
One danger is that Trump might be seduced into believing that Iran will agree to a deal only if it is first assaulted with more sanctions, threats, and “maximum pressure.” That would have the opposite effect. It would harden Iran’s position at a moment when, despite the recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, regional tensions are unusually high.
The larger goal in any negotiation between the United States and Iran would be to shape a new regional security architecture for the Middle East. Stability will be possible when all countries in the region feel safe. Trump took a step in this direction with his 2020 Abraham Accords, which eased hostility between Israel and several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. That process will be complete only when Iran is inside the tent.
Likely? No. Possible? Certainly. Trump is famously unpredictable and outrageous. He imagines himself a consummate dealmaker. That could lead him to try bringing Iran in from the cold.
Stephen Kinzer is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University.
