Mexico, renowned as the epitome of machismo, is about to elect a female president. On a recent visit, I asked several women if they thought this will change their country’s macho ethos. All gave me the same one-word answer: ¡Ojalá! It translates as either “Hopefully!” or “If only!”
Both candidates in the June 2 election are female. The winner will preside over a nation of 130 million that is full of potential but deeply troubled. Several people I met happily shared their opinions about the upcoming election but then added something to the effect of “It doesn’t matter. Narcos rule the country.”
That may be an exaggeration, but just barely. Entire regions of Mexico are out of the control of the central government. Law officers, journalists, and political candidates who challenge the power of drug lords are assassinated. Perpetrators are almost never found. Corruption reaches the highest levels of government.
Despite all of this, the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, universally known as AMLO, is widely popular. He has challenged the country’s traditional elites, increased social benefits, and emerged as a highly successful populist, even as he has taken steps to undermine the country’s democratic institutions. The constitution bars him from seeking a second term, but his popularity allows him to coronate a successor. He has chosen one of his longtime associates, Claudia Sheinbaum, who until last year was mayor of Mexico City.
Today Mexico is plastered with campaign posters showing AMLO and Sheinbaum arm in arm beneath the slogan “It’s Claudia.” The president is sending a clear message: If you like me, vote for her. “It’s practically a reelection,” one young man told me.
AMLO has promised to retire from politics when his term ends, but since he has been a politician for his entire adult life, some doubt his resolve to stay away. Sheinbaum owes her large lead in opinion polls to his endorsement. For years she has been among his most faithful disciples and now he has crowned her his heir apparent. That is likely to propel her to the presidency. Whether she will be able to govern independently of him remains to be seen.
Sheinbaum is the granddaughter of Jewish immigrants from Lithuania and Bulgaria. She holds a PhD in energy engineering and has published dozens of scholarly articles on topics related to energy conservation and sustainable development. Ever since her college days she has been active in left-wing causes. Her background positions her to become a thoughtful and environmentally conscious president. Or another bulwark of Mexico’s increasingly authoritarian political system. Or both.
Mexico has never resolved the question of presidential succession. During the rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which lasted for more than 70 years, presidents chose their successors. Beginning in 2000 there were competitive elections. Now Mexico is back to Plan A. Sheinbaum will assume the presidency as the beneficiary of a tap on the shoulder. She may have little incentive to democratize the system that is bringing her to power.
Sheinbaum’s opponent, Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, a former tech entrepreneur, is also the product of backroom politics. Leaders of pro-business parties chose her as the best face for their opposition. She appears more conservative than the left-leaning electorate and has failed to capture the public imagination. Although she has repeatedly promised not to cut the social benefits that AMLO has showered on the poorer classes, not all voters believe her.
Behind all these questions for Mexico and its voters lies the reality of drug cartels. Using their wealth to bribe officials and their ruthlessness to wipe away enemies, they have established themselves as the country’s real centers of power. Only their disorganization and internal rivalries prevent them from effectively ruling all of the country.
Yet at press conferences, AMLO sometimes shows little sympathy for victims of drug-related violence. He seems more interested in questioning the homicide rate than in holding killers accountable. During his six years in power, AMLO has eliminated checks and balances, consolidated power in the presidency, and maintained full control of Morena, the party he has led to electoral dominance. One of his main tools for carrying out his agenda has been the army, which now owns hotels, airports, and other businesses, and has colluded with the cartels.
Mexican presidents have zigged and zagged on the question of how to confront the threat that drug cartels pose to the state. Sometimes the policy is to crack down, other times to make deals and cooperate. Neither has led the cartels to curb the murderous violence that has become part of their business model. Cartels serve the US market, and most of their weapons come from the United States, but some in Washington blame Mexico for the scourge of drugs on American streets. A few have even suggested that US forces should bomb drug processing labs in Mexico. If Sheinbaum is elected, she will have to deal delicately with Washington on this emotional issue.
Perhaps even more emotional, and more politically potent, is the challenge of migration. Mexico’s next president will have to decide how fully to cooperate with the United States on projects to prevent migrants from approaching the US border. This will be challenging under any circumstances but possibly explosive if Donald Trump is elected in the United States and makes threatening demands of Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum is poised to be an important symbol for Mexico, Latin America, and the world. The job she is likely to hold for the next six years, however, is daunting.
Stephen Kinzer is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University.
