Quick, what’s the most populous country in the world? Hint: It also has the world’s largest diaspora. Second hint: President Trump is spitting in its face.
Relations between the United States and India have taken a sharp tumble in recent weeks. It is a startling reversal. For decades the two countries steadily increased their economic interdependency and political friendship. They also built military ties as part of the QUAD “security partnership” along with Japan and Australia. All of that has suddenly been thrown into upheaval.
The United States nurtured relations with India because we saw it as a rising regional power with global ambitions. President Trump also sees it that way — but he apparently does not like what he sees.
Trump announced last month that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on Indian exports to the United States. Days later he doubled it to 50 percent, saying this was punishment for India’s policy of buying oil and gas from Russia. Then he suggested that the tariff might be raised to 100 percent if India does not change course. A reporter asked him whether India would be reprieved if it stops trading with Russia.
“We’ll determine that later,” Trump replied. “But right now they’re paying a 50 percent tariff.”
Later one of Trump’s senior aides, Stephen Miller, called India’s trade with Russia an “astonishing fact” and pointedly referred to Russia’s war with Ukraine: “It is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing oil from Russia.”
India began buying large amounts of Russian oil soon after Russia cut prices following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. President Biden did not react, evidently because he did not want to alienate India. Trump, however, is using economic power in an attempt to bend India’s foreign policy to his liking.
That has set off howls of outrage in India. Following a pattern seen in some other countries that Trump has manhandled, an outbreak of nationalism has set off proud defiance.
“Trump’s actions, statements, and coercive tone have made relations with the United States a combustible domestic political issue in India,” wrote Evan Feigenbaum, who spent a decade at the State Department shaping American policy toward South Asia. “The opposition, the media, and the Indian public have put the government on notice to avoid showing weakness in the face of Trump’s threats.”
India needs energy supplies. Russia is selling at a deep discount. That helps power India’s economy. It also, as American officials point out, helps Russia finance its war in Ukraine. India insists on its right to buy oil wherever it finds the best deal. Its foreign minister called Trump’s threats “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi sounded ready for confrontation: “I know I’ll have to pay a heavy price, but I’m ready. India is ready.”
This turnaround, like much in Trump’s Washington, was abrupt and unexpected. In February, Modi became just the fourth foreign leader Trump received at the White House. Trump called him a “great friend.” More recently, however, Trump has moved closer to India’s archrival Pakistan. He met with the Pakistani strongman, General Asim Munir, proposed him for the Nobel Peace Prize, and proclaimed, “I love Pakistan!”
Given the depth and value of US-India ties, India is eager to avoid a strategic break. New trade talks may produce a compromise. If they do not, however, Trump’s assault on India could redraw the world’s strategic map.
A fundamental reason that India and the United States became so close in recent decades is their shared hostility to China. Trump’s assault, if it is sustained, could cause India to swallow hard, move away from the United States, and begin to think about the unthinkable: partnership with China.
India could move closer to Russia as well. Russia is eager for friends and would welcome closer ties. The two countries, along with China, are already partners in the insurgent BRICS coalition — another part of Indian policy that irritates Trump, who sees BRICS as a quasi-enemy. President Vladimir Putin of Russia, sensing an opportunity to peel India away from the West, has announced plans to visit New Delhi soon. That should set off alarm bells in Washington.
A true China-India-Russia partnership will not emerge quickly. By insisting that India bend to his will, however, Trump may be forcing it toward a strategic choice.
Trump evidently sees the rise of other countries as a threat to the United States. He is responding to the transcendent American challenge of our era. As other countries rise, the relative power of the United States naturally declines. Whether the United States accepts this evolving rebalancing of global power or resolves to prevent it will help determine how stable the world is in the coming decades. By using trade as a weapon to force India to change its foreign policy, Trump signals that he is determined to resist any erosion of American global power. It is a high-stakes gamble.
China is Trump’s main target, but he has also slapped down other countries that are members of the obstreperous BRICS bloc. He is correct to presume that the rise of these “middle powers” could threaten American primacy. He has singled out China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, and now India as unfriendly and potentially hostile. Trump is betting that he can intimidate them. He may instead be pushing them together.
Stephen Kinzer is a senior fellow at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University.
